New Zealand vs. Sri Lanka game of the ongoing ICC World Cup 2023 has more or less decided which team might go through to the semi-finals and join India, South Africa, and Australia in the knockout stage. Before this game, Pakistan and Afghanistan were also in contention for the lone semi-final spot.

New Zealand achieved a comprehensive win over Sri Lanka in Bengaluru reaching their target of 172 runs in 23.2 overs with 5 wickets to spare. This also meant that their net run rate has soared to +0.743 and almost confirmed their spot in the final four.

The Black Caps' victory over Sri Lanka means they sit in the box seat to finish fourth and are the most likely opponents for India.

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However, Babar Azam’s Pakistan are still in contention, mathematically. This can only come if they register a huge win over England in their final CWC 2023 league match.    

Pakistan's equation to make the semi-finals after New Zealand's huge win is a near-impossible one with their current NRR of 0.036.

If they bat first, they need to win by a margin of 287 runs at least. And if they are chasing, they need to dismiss England for 50 runs and chase the target in two overs or 100 runs in three overs. 

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Afghanistan's odds are even lesser given that their net run rate is further lower than Pakistan's. They face South Africa on Friday in Ahmedabad.

All of these appear highly improbable, meaning that the top four of the World Cup is almost set in stone. 

This also means that India will most likely have a repeat of the 2019 World Cup and face New Zealand in the semi-final in Mumbai on Wednesday, November 15. Australia and South Africa will then face off on November 16 in Kolkata.

Somehow, if Pakistan manages to overtake New Zealand in net run rate, and finish in fourth place, then India's clash with their arch-rivals will take place in Kolkata on Thursday.

(ICC inputs)