Team India's WTC 2025 final qualification scenarios after Perth Test win in BGT 2024

India remains at no.1 spot in WTC 2025 points table.

By Jatin Sharma - 02 Dec, 2024

The race for the 2025 World Test Championship (WTC) final is becoming fiercer with each passing game. Five teams—India, South Africa, Australia, New Zealand, and Sri Lanka—are still vying for the final at Lord's in June 2025.  

The top two teams at the end of the 2023-25 WTC league stage cycle go to the summit battle, and while those two teams are presently India and South Africa, things could change significantly in the following months.

New Zealand, who jumped into contention after defeating India 3-0 in India, suffered a loss in the first Test of their three-match series to England in Christchurch. That loss means the New Zealand team can no longer exceed 60% in the WTC rankings, and with only two more matches remaining, their best chance is a PCT of 57.14.

New Zealand's loss to England in the first Test might be good news for India, which leads the Border-Gavaskar Trophy Test series against Australia 1-0 after a 295-run victory in Perth.  

However, it is far from finished, as India still has four more matches to play, the second of which will be held in Adelaide on December 6.  

Here is the updated WTC 2025 table after New Zealand’s loss to England:

Position  

 Team                  

 Matches 

 Won 

 Lost 

  Draw 

 Point deductions 

 Points 

 PCT 

1

India

15

9

5

1

2

110

61.11

2

South Africa

9

5

3

1

0

64

59.26

3

Australia

13

8

4

1

10

90

57.69

4

New Zealand

12

6

6

0

0

72

50

5

Sri Lanka

10

5

5

0

0

60

50

6

England

20

10

9

1

19

105

43.75

7

Pakistan

10

4

6

0

8

40

33.33

8

West Indies

10

2

6

2

0

32

26.67

9

Bangladesh

11

3

8

0

3

33

25

 

Here is how the Indian team can qualify for the final of the WTC 2025:

Coming to the Indian team, they have done their chances no harm by defeating Australia in the first Test of the BGT 2024 that was played in Perth. They now have four more Tests in hand with the second match starting on December 6 in Adelaide.

Should India beat Australia 5-0, 4-0, or 4-1, the Rohit Sharma-led outfit will be safely through to the WTC final next year. Four wins over Australia will take India’s PCT to 64.04. Thus, India will have more PCT than Sri Lanka, which will have a PCT of 61.54 if they win the rest of the matches, as well as South Africa.

If South Africa wins 2-0 against Pakistan but fails to sweep Sri Lanka, they will only have a PCT of 61.11. However, if the Proteas beat Sri Lanka 2-0, they will have a PCT of 69.44. If this occurs, India will rank second in the WTC standings.

India can potentially get to the final with a 3-0 series victory over Australia. Another scenario in which India might qualify is if they defeat Australia 3-1. However, if this happens, India must pray that South Africa does not defeat Sri Lanka in the second Test, which begins on December 5.

South Africa moved to second place in the WTC 2025 standings by winning the first Test by 233 runs, pushing Australia to third place.

And if India defeats Australia 3-2, then they will need Sri Lanka to draw at least one match against Australia in their two-match Test series in the island nation early next year.

However, a 2-2 drawn series between Australia and India complicates things. If this happens, then India will need South Africa to defeat Sri Lanka 2-0, and Sri Lanka beat Australia with a minimum 1-0 series scoreline.

(Firstpost inputs)

By Jatin Sharma - 02 Dec, 2024

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